JKSE my point of view

IHSG divergen negatif terhadap MACD disertai dengan pelemahan momentum yang ditandai dengan dead cross stochastic menunjukkan potensi pelemahan lebih lanjut .

 

Dari view alligator, uptrend masih terjaga cukup baik dengan mental kembalinya IHSG saat menguji garis buaya biru sebagai support dan berhasil close diatas level trailing stop di 3651.92

 

Candle membentuk hammer yang merupakan indikasi pembalikan arah dan memerlukan konfirmasi Close > 3684.15

 

Dari Plain chart terlihat pola hammer candlestick ini terjadi saat low hari ini menguji garis trendline

 

Dari keterangan di atas saya menyimpulkan bahwa IHSG berpotensi untuk rebound jangka pendek

 

Menarik untuk dilakukan Speculative Buy pada range 3630 – 3650 dengan target trading short term 3710 – 3740 . Cutloss bila close < 3620

 

Semoga membantu,

Susu Ultra

Susu ultra sepertinya lagi banjir peminat .... koreksi s/d 1630-1650 merupakan kesempatan yang cukup baik

 

Good to buy area 1580 – 1650 .

 

 THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

 

Disclaimer: Never invest in any stock featured on our site or emails unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

 

My Watchlist - ELTY

29 Okt 2010

Technical Analysis for ELTY

 

Signal buy akan muncul saat mental melewati level konfirmasi 154 bila hari sebelumnya volume < 575rb lot

atau

Menunggu sinyal Buy on weakness di 145 bila diperkirakan vol < 575rb lot

 

Possibly it is a FALSE BREAK DOWN , so target min 167 - max 176
Possibility masa konsolidasi di bawah = max 5hr
Money Management :
@ 145 = 72% porto, risk reward = 1:11
@ 155 = 26% porto, risk reward = 1:1,8

 

Waspadai pola Head n Shoulder bila tidak mampu lewati 167
dengan target penurunan 110-116

 

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

 

Disclaimer: Never invest in any stock featured on our site or emails unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

(BN) Goldman Sachs Profit Falls 82%, Misses Estimates on Trading-Revenue Drop

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Goldman Sachs Profit Drops 82%, Missing Estimates

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said second-quarter profit dropped 82 percent, missing analysts' estimates on a slide in trading revenue, five days after settling U.S. regulators' fraud allegations. Revenue and profit were the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Net income fell to $613 million, or 78 cents a share, from $3.44 billion, or $4.93, a year earlier, New York-based Goldman Sachs said in a statement today. The average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for earnings of $1.99 per share, with estimates ranging from 77 cents to $4.34. Some of the analysts didn't include costs of the settlement.

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs's chairman and chief executive officer, is working to restore the firm's reputation after agreeing to pay $550 million to settle the Securities and Exchange Commission's fraud accusations. The bank's bigger competitors, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., last week also reported lower trading revenue as market gyrations reduced clients' willingness to take on risk. Concern that the U.S. economic rebound will stall and reform legislation will crimp profits at finance companies have weighed on their stocks.

"The clouds over the financial industry remain thick," said Michael Farr, president and founder of Washington-based Farr, Miller & Washington LLC, who manages more than $650 million. Farr, who sold his Goldman Sachs stock when the SEC suit was filed on April 16, said he's considering buying again.

'Leading the Category'

"You've got probably the greatest, most innovative investment bank in the world, leading the category, which looks cheap," Farr said before earnings were released. "I have not put my money back in yet but I am taking a close look at doing just that."

Goldman Sachs fell to $141.48 in New York trading at 8:31 a.m. from $145.68 yesterday. The stock is down 14 percent this year through yesterday, while the S&P 500 Financials Index, which tracks the performance of 80 financial company shares, is down 2 percent this year.

"The market environment became more difficult during the second quarter and, as a result, client activity across our businesses declined," Blankfein said in the statement.

Costs during the quarter included a $600 million charge for a tax levied by the U.K. government on bonuses paid to bank employees last year as well as a $550 million cost from the SEC settlement. Excluding those two costs, earnings per share would have been $2.75 per share. That's still the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Operating Expenses

Total operating expenses dropped to $7.39 billion from $8.73 billion in the same period a year earlier as the company reduced compensation costs to $3.8 billion from $6.65 billion.

Goldman Sachs's shares rebounded last week after the firm settled with the SEC over its 2007 sale of a collateralized debt obligation. The cost was lower than the $1 billion some analysts had estimated and the settlement didn't require any management changes. Analysts slashed earnings estimates in recent weeks on concern market declines would hurt trading revenue as well as on costs related to the settlement and the U.K.'s bonus tax.

"People have gotten overly pessimistic on Goldman," Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC, said before the earnings were released. "We don't believe they've lost big chunks of their client base, and we do believe in their risk-management capabilities."

Bank of America

Shares of some of Goldman Sachs's biggest rivals fell last week after they reported revenue that was lower than investors predicted. JPMorgan Chase's second-quarter net revenue dropped 9 percent from the first quarter as sales at the investment-bank unit slid 24 percent. Bank of America Corp.'s revenue fell 9 percent as global banking and markets results tumbled 38 percent.

Morgan Stanley, which was the second-biggest securities firm after Goldman Sachs before both converted to banks in 2008, is due to report earnings tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs's revenue dropped to $8.84 billion, 31 percent below the first quarter and down 36 percent from the second quarter of last year. The biggest component, revenue from trading fixed-income, currencies and commodities, fell to $4.4 from $7.39 billion in the first quarter and $6.8 billion a year earlier.

The second-quarter annualized return on common equity, a measure of how well the firm reinvests earnings, declined to 7.9 percent in the quarter from 20.1 percent in the first quarter and 23 percent in the same quarter a year earlier. Book value per share climbed to $123.73 from $122.52 at the end of the first quarter.

Equity Trading

Equity trading revenue declined 49 percent to $1.21 billion from $2.35 billion in the first quarter. Principal investments, which includes gains and losses from Goldman Sachs's stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. as well as stakes in other companies and real estate, provided a $943 million gain in the quarter.

Investment-banking revenue dropped 23 percent to $917 million from the first quarter as advisory fees gained 2 percent, debt underwriting revenue declined 36 percent and equity underwriting revenue decreased 40 percent.

Investors and analysts said before the earnings that they're keen for news on how the settlement, which imposes changes to the way Goldman Sachs sells mortgage-related securities, and the wider financial regulatory reform bill passed by the U.S. Senate last week will affect earnings.

Risk-Taking

"I do think there will actually be business reforms where their risk-taking might be reined in," said Portales Partners LLC's Peabody. "I don't think there's any question that Goldman did play in the grey areas" and curbing that "reduces your opportunities."

Revenue from asset management rose 3 percent to $976 million from $946 million in the first quarter as assets under management fell 5 percent to $802 million from $840 million in the first quarter. Securities services, the division that includes fees charged for providing services to hedge funds, reported $397 million in revenue, up from $395 million in the first quarter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net

Find out more about Bloomberg for iPad: http://m.bloomberg.com/iphone

Sent from my iPad

INDF Stock Pick for 14 July 2010

Stock Pick untuk 14 Juli 2010 :

 

INDF dengan Target Price 4550 – 4600

 

Diperkirakan akan memulai subwave 5 of wave 5

 

Exit bila close < 4250

 

Seiring dengan meningkatnya index sectoral Agriculture diharapkan dapat menopang sector Finance yang sudah naik 3 hari berturut turut

 

Good Luck

Rebound nggak ... rebound nggak ?

Hopefully It’s a GREEN DAY .

 

Target DJI 10.400 , FTSE 5.200, OIL 81

 

Euro and AUD masih sideways

 

Good Luck

Index Regional sampai 28 Juni 2010 12.00 WIB

DowJones dan FTSE telah koreksi selama 1 minggu, tertahan di area support . Kemungkinan untuk technical rebound sangatlah besar

 

Sekalipun begitu beberapa Currency dan Commodity berada pada trading range mendekati resisten area . Demikian juga dengan index Hangseng dan IHSG

 

Prediksi bahwa pasar financial akan mixed di akhir bulan Juni 2010 ini sepertinya menjadi kenyataan . Demikian strategi trading yang sesuai adalah pola – pola hit and run dengan target yang pendek

 

Good Luck

Gold and Oil

Emas sebagai safe heaven ketika terjadi ketidak pastian belum menunjukkan pelemahan

 

 

Rupiah mengalami penguatan yang signfikan kemungkinan karena didukung oleh moody’s rating yang membaik , dari chart Rupiah vs USD terlihat sepintas Rupiah masih lebih kuat disbanding USD

 

 

OIL sudah keluar dari track penguatannya , memasuki masa side ways . waspadai level 74.48 sebagai level sementara konfirmasi penurunan

 

 

Index Regional DOW , FTSE , HSI

Dow Jones ditutup – 145 points semalam, berhenti persis di bottom channel . Berpotensi technical rebound malam ini . Namun waspadai level resisten 10.400an

 

FTSE ditutup turun cukup kencang, berhenti persis di bottom trend line . Berpotensi technical rebound malam ini . Pergerakan EUR tidak menunjukkan kesamaan dalam hal penurunan FTSE semalam ( divergen )

 

HSI membentuk pola yang agak meragukan persis di top of channel . Sekalipun target area 21.200 – 21.700 belum terpenuhi, waspadalah bila HSI membentuk gap down yang besar karena akan membentuk Island reversal pattern

 

IHSG critical area 2899.27 . Pola chart Asia ( Hang Seng dan IHSG ) memang cukup mengkuatirkan karena berada di top channel . berbeda dengan pola chart index Negara Eropa maupun Amerika yang sudah retrace cukup jauh dari top of channelnya

 

 

HSI Menguji Downtrend Channel

Setelah didahului oleh Gap yang besar 3 hari lalu, Hangseng Index belum mampu menembus downtrend channel

 

Bila downtrend channel berhasil di tembus akan membuka peluang untuk short term trading hingga Hangseng mencapai level extreme 21.300

 

Waspadai pola island reversal ( turun dengan gap ) apabila percobaan penembusan channel gagal beberapa kali

 

Wish you luck

EARLY BEAR warning from OIL Chart

Pergerakan Oil Daily chart selama 3 hari terakhir menunjukkan pelemahan kekuatan bull untuk menembus resist 78.60

 

Ditandai dengan rata2 volume 3 hari terakhir yang mulai menunjukkan peningkatan disaat harga terdorong ke bawah perlahan

 

Dan Close tgl 23 Juni < level support 76.26 .

 

Potensi upswing masih ada untuk 1 – 2 hari ini, bila kekuatan up swing tidak terlalu besar maka kita akan menunggu wave 5 confirmed level di 74.48

 

Happy Holiday all, wishing you best of luck

Perkembangan Index Regional per 21 Juni 2010 Midday

• Dow Jones terus mengalami penguatan sekalipun pada 3 candle terakhir terlihat kekuatan buyer dan seller sudah makin berimbang . DJI ditutup persis pada area resisten 10.450, penguatan masih memungkinkan ke level 10.540 – 10.680
• FTSE kekuatan reboundnya termasuk yang paling lemah . dan 2 candle terakhir menunjukkan ketidak mampuan untuk make Higher High padahal volume sudah meningkat
• Hongkong melanjutkan rebound dengan GAP yang sangat besar . Sayang sekali data volume tidak ada, sekalipun begitu potensi untuk melanjutkan penguatan sampai dengan extreme level 21.300 masih ada . Namun waspadai bila hari berikutnya tidak mampu menembus garis downtrend channel Biru, penurunan disertai dengan gap akan menghasilkan Island Reversal yang cukup valid
• IHSG sampai dengan sesi 1 penguatan masih terus berlangsung . Level 2996 masih menjadi level penentu . Waspadai potensi double top  .

Perkembangan Mata Uang dan Komoditas per 21 Juni 2010

• Euro dalam range resisten
• IDR kencang ruarr biasa, is it HUGE INFLOW ?
• OIL penguatan masih memungkinkan walau makin terbatas
• Gold wave counting berubah, menyelesaikan subwave 3 of 5
• AUD Subwave C of 4 yang melemah namun terlihat dipaksakan ke target

 

Overall condition : Berada pada area resisten, komoditi memperlihatkan penguatan yang mengagumkan . Namun di sisi lain, penurunan harga dimungkinkan terjadi pada percepatan yang sama dengan kenaikan nya.

 

Safe trade and Good Luck

IHSG 18 Juni 2010

IHSG telah menembus Extreme level Channel disertai Volume yang memadai dan penembusan support IDR

 

Potensi penguatan menuju 2950 – 3030, disertai dengan target pola Head n Shoulder ke 3140 .

 

Akan melakukan Wave re-counting saat terjadi koreksi

 

Apakah sekarang adalah awal dari Bullish atau sebuah Rebound yang luar biasa

 

Kondisi Grafik pendukung belum menunjukkan konfirmasi bahwa Bullish season sudah berjalan, namun

 

Peluang menuju kesana tetap ada .

 

Mari kita manfaatkan peluang yang tersedia, dengan trading jangka pendek dan stoploss yang ketat

 

Good Luck

Rupiah Point of View 18 Juni 2010

IDR vs USD

Menguat Breakdown Pola Triangle

Dalam wave B turun

Masih berpotensi menguat menguji Support 9020 – 9070

 

Penulis berasumsi terjadi inflow yang walau belum cukup besar namun cukup ok untuk masa depan Rupiah

Regional condition on JKSE end of sesi 1

• AUD dalam resisten channel , bila break berpeluang menguji 0.8750 . Support critical pada 0.8612 .
• EURO sedang menguji level 1.2327 – 1.2399 sebagai resisten
• Crude Oil sedang menguji resisten 76.6 – 78.6
• Gold very short term view akan turun bersamaan dengan kenaikan risk appetite pada instrument saham dan valas ke level 1210 – 1190
• Dow Jones malam ini berpeluang naik menguji level fibo 121.4% di 10.450 sekaligus menguji down trendline
• IHSG menguji extreme level down channel di 2880 – 2996

 

Kesimpulan :

Kebanyakan berada pada level resistennya , bahkan untuk IHSG sedang menguji level extreme downtrend channel

 

Kondisi Commodity dan Currency 15 Juni 2010

• EUR berada pada resisten area, selama tidak menembus batas bawah 1.2205 . Berpeluang menguji 1.2327
• Dow Jones pada penutupan tgl 14/6/2010 gagal menembus resisten, hari ini kemungkinan akan menguji sekali lagi. Namun bila tutup dibawah level 10.154 kemungkinan akan berbalik arah
• AUD diperkirakan telah mencapai resisten kuatnya di level 0.8570
• OIL masih memiliki upside potential bila mampu menembus 76.26 dengan target 76.60-78.60
• IDR sedang menguji support 9.157 diharapkan mampu ditembus supaya IHSG mampu bertahan diatas area 2.838

 

Good Luck

IHSG view per 11 Juni 2010 (Finale)

Next Stop for IHSG @ 2838

 

Bila masih break ke atas maka target berikutnya mengikut extreme deviation level ( Garis Orange )

IHSG view per 11 Juni 2010

Next Stop for IHSG @ 2838

 

Bila masih break ke atas maka target berikutnya mengikut extreme deviation level ( Garis Orange )

PTBA 14 Juni 2010

Trading LONG long Play  target Wave 3 (optimis mode) 18700 @1.68%
harus make new high more then 17500
trading entry 16650-16700
cut @16050 risk:reward 600:2000

 

short time play within 1-2 days(closing gap) target 16950
entry 16650 cut 16450
risk reward 250:300

Darwin P Wun
Don't Give up to do Good things
Think Positive, Pray, and always Grateful